Tuesday 19. September 2023
1030 – 1130 Registration
1130 – 1230 Lunch
1230 – 1300 Opening talk:
Forecasting natural disasters		 Bård Fjukstad
The Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET)
Session 1:
Methods and models for natural hazard prediction, including machine learning		 Chairs:
Karianne Ødemark, MET
Sjur Kolberg, NVE
1300 – 1340 Keynote 1.1: Global HYPE modelling as a short-cut to national/regional prediction systems Berit Arheimer
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, SMHI
1340 – 1400 Trends in hydrometeorological avalanche indicators in Norway and Svalbard in 1957-2023 Tuomo M. Saloranta
NVE
1400 – 1420 Modeling streamflow response to climate change in Wamkurumadzi River, Shire Basin in Malawi using the SWAT Model Lusungu Nkhoma
University of Oslo
1420 – 1440 Coffee break
1440 – 1520 Keynote 1.2: A machine learning revolution for weather forecasting? Matthew Chantry
European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
1520 – 1540 Flood forecasting everywhere – putting PUB to work Thomas Skaugen
NVE
1540 – 1600 The distributed regression hydrological model (DRM) Bernt V. Matheussen
Å Energi
1600 – 1620 Stormwater calculations using AI to predict and prev-ent flooding along railway lines. Case: Meråkerbanen Werner Svellingen
7 Analytics
1620 – 1640 Buffer and break
1640 – 1700 River discharge extremes in Norwegian regulated catchments: simulations using a hydro-logic model including human interventions Emiliano Gelati
University of Oslo
1700 – 1720 SPI-Based Hybrid Wavelet–ANN Models for Drought Forecasting in north Tunisia Nesrine Abid
El Manar University, Tunis
1830 – 1930 Posters/drinks
Benchmarking multiple hydrology models at seventy catchments in southern Norway – work in progress Bernt. V. Matheussen
Å Energi
A data-driven model for Fennoscandian wildfire danger Sigrid Jørgensen Bakke
NVE
The EMERGE project: Multi-hazards and emergent risks in Northern Europe’s remote and vulnerable regions Katy Freeborough
British Geological Survey
From climate projections to guidelines on climate change allowances Irene Brox Nilsen
NVE
Return values for extreme precipitation in Norway –
a comparison of estimates from new approaches combining ensemble data and gridded observations to PMP values		 Karianne Ødemark
MET
Enabling the comparison of high-resolution precipi-tation observations with numerical weather prediction model simulations at every model time-step Harald Sodemann
University of Bergen 
1930 Dinner

 

Wednesday 21. September 2023
Session 2:
Forecasting of weather-induced natural hazards, including data assimilation		 Chairs:
Ole Einar Tveito, MET
Trine Jahr Hegdahl, NVE
0830 – 0910 Keynote 2.1: Probabilistic impact-based approaches for flood forecasting and prediction Steven Cole
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, UK
0910 – 0930 A land data assimilation system for NWP initial conditions and hydrometeorological forecasting Jostein Blyverket
MET
0930 – 0950 How can we make ensemble flood forecast more reliable? Byman H. Hamududu
NVE
0950 – 1010 Coffee break
1010 – 1050 Keynote 2.2: Risk-based flood forecasting in Norway – the way(s) forwards Kolbjørn Engeland
NVE
1050 – 1110 Understanding the influence of soil moisture and surface water fluxes on extreme convective precipitation events during summer in South Norway Laura Ehrnsperger
MET
1110 – 1230 Lunch

 

Session 3:
Impact-based natural hazard warnings: User needs and risk communication		 Chairs:
Lena Merete Tallaksen, UiO Anders Doksæter Sivle, MET
1230 – 1310 Keynote 3.1: From drought impact information to impact-based forecasting: progress and setbacks Kerstin Stahl
University of Freiburg
1310 – 1330 Monitoring drought indices for decision support concerning the management of cereal productivity in Tunisia Nesrine Abid
El Manar University, Tunis
1330 – 1350 Serious gaming as a tool for involving local stakeholders in risk management Ingrid Vigna
MET
1350 – 1410 Coffee break
1410 – 1450 Keynote 3.2: Evolving Early Warnings with the Power of Impact Data Juhana Hyrkkânen
Finnish Meteorological Institute
1450 – 1510 FlomRisk – user centered design to support impact-based flood warnings Trine J. Hegdahl
NVE
1510 – 1530 Actionable warnings – a joint effort on how to communicate warnings with one voice Mai-Linn F. Svehagen
MET
1545 – 1900 Social event
1930 Conference dinner

 


Thursday 22. September
Session 4:
Dimensioning and planning for natural hazard risks, including climate change issues		 Chairs:
Trine Jahr Hegdahl, NVE
Sjur Kolberg, NVE
0830 – 0910 Keynote 4.1: Safe rivers – is it possible – or not?  Oddbjørn Bruland
Norwegian University of Science and Technology
0910 – 0930 Mitigation measure manual Priska H. Hiller
NVE
0930 – 0950 Floods during the last millennium – what are the trends and how exceptional was the Storofsen flood in 1789? Kolbjørn Engeland
NVE
0950 – 1010 Coffee break
1010 – 1050 Keynote 4.2: Handling and mitigation of a flood event – Before, during and after Bjørg Lirhus Ree
Voss herad
1050 – 1140 Panel discussion Hege Hisdal, NVE (chair)
1140 – 1200 Closing remarks
1200 – 1300 Lunch